BBG median exp. look for +1.5% Y/Y for....>

AUSTRALIA: BBG median exp. look for +1.5% Y/Y for Q119 headline CPI (Q418

+1.8%), +1.7% for trimmed mean CPI (Q4 +1.8%) & +1.6% for weighted median CPI

(Q4 +1.7%.)

- The minutes of the RBA's April MonPol decision revealed that board "members

discussed the scenario where inflation did not move any higher & unemployment

trended up, noting that a decrease in the cash rate would likely be appropriate

in these circumstances." The latest labour mkt report saw a modest uptick in

unemployment, to 5.0%, although employment growth was much stronger than exp. &

participation edged higher. It is also worth noting that the RBA has 5.0% unemp.

pencilled in for '19, so the latest labour mkt report shouldn't move the needle.

- Fuel prices are set to pressure to headline CPI, with core measures set to

ease at the margin. The RBA has 1.25% & 1.75% pencilled in for the headline &

core measures respectively in H119, so it may take a notable downside miss to

trigger a cut in the short term (as outlined in MNI INSIGHT: Only Big CPI Miss

Would Prompt RBA Dovishness, April 10 '19). Interpolated OIS price a 63.0%

chance of at least RBA 1 cut by the end of Sep, rising to ~76% through end '19.