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BCB Focus Survey Due At 1225BST / 0725ET

BRAZIL
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  • Despite ongoing fiscal concerns and the risk of further tensions between Congress and the government this week, BRL outperformed yesterday, gaining by 0.69% against the dollar. Yesterday, it was reported that the government is trying to push back on plans in Congress to hold votes this week that could cost the government as much as BRL 96.3bn in the period 2024-2026. President Lula is expected to talk with Senate leader Pacheco and lower house speaker Lira on the matter this week.
  • BBVA still have a preference for a long BRL position, noting that BRL outperformance may hinge on a more consistent compression in Brazilian rates. On a technical basis, support to watch for USDBRL lies at 5.1175, the 20-day EMA. On the upside, attention is on 5.3330 , 76.4% of the Nov 11 ‘23 - Jul 28 ‘23 bear leg.
  • Today, the BCB will publish its weekly Focus survey at 1225BST(0725ET), with the usual forecasts for GDP, CPI, BRL and the Selic rate. Given the recent pressure on BRL, attention will be on the year-end USDBRL and SELIC rate forecasts which both edged up last week, along with the 2025 year-end CPI forecast. March tax collections data will also cross at 1430BST.
    • March Tax Collections, est. 190.9b, prior 186.5b
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  • Despite ongoing fiscal concerns and the risk of further tensions between Congress and the government this week, BRL outperformed yesterday, gaining by 0.69% against the dollar. Yesterday, it was reported that the government is trying to push back on plans in Congress to hold votes this week that could cost the government as much as BRL 96.3bn in the period 2024-2026. President Lula is expected to talk with Senate leader Pacheco and lower house speaker Lira on the matter this week.
  • BBVA still have a preference for a long BRL position, noting that BRL outperformance may hinge on a more consistent compression in Brazilian rates. On a technical basis, support to watch for USDBRL lies at 5.1175, the 20-day EMA. On the upside, attention is on 5.3330 , 76.4% of the Nov 11 ‘23 - Jul 28 ‘23 bear leg.
  • Today, the BCB will publish its weekly Focus survey at 1225BST(0725ET), with the usual forecasts for GDP, CPI, BRL and the Selic rate. Given the recent pressure on BRL, attention will be on the year-end USDBRL and SELIC rate forecasts which both edged up last week, along with the 2025 year-end CPI forecast. March tax collections data will also cross at 1430BST.
    • March Tax Collections, est. 190.9b, prior 186.5b