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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessBCB Focus Survey Indicates 7% Year-End Selic Rate Forecast
- In the most recent focus survey, inflation forecasts continue to be revised higher, filtering through to an increase to 2021 year-end Selic rate as seen below:
- Brazil economists forecast 6.56% 2021 inflation; prior 6.31% (BBG)
- Brazil economists forecast 3.80% 2022 inflation; prior 3.75% (BBG)
- Brazil economists see 7% 2021 year-end Selic; prior 6.75% (BBG)
- Swap rates experienced heightened volatility on Friday after an above-estimate July bi-weekly CPI. The 8.59% headline annual print served as trigger for traders to push the curve significantly higher severely weighing on bets that inflation was slowing down.
- DI contract expiring in Jan 2022 rose 23 bps, a huge rise for such a short maturity. Contract expiring in 2023 rose 28 bps. This gives a clear indication that the more aggressive Selic move next week is the main bet among traders.
- Digital options traded at B3 now show 60% odds of a 100bps hike versus 37% last Friday.
- For reference, the August Copom rate decision/statement takes place next Wednesday, August 4.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.