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BCB Set To Hold Course With 50bp Easing Pace

BRAZIL
  • All surveyed analysts believe that the Copom will continue the easing cycle with another 50bp cut, bringing the Selic rate down to 11.25% (2130GMT/1630ET). Prior guidance in the December statement and most recent comments from central bank board members have reiterated that economic conditions remain consistent with this strategy. However, market participants will be alert for any tweaks to the statement that provide clues on whether the easing pace could be adjusted in the first half of 2024.
  • The full MNI preview with analyst views is here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/59728/MNI%20Brazil%20Central%20Bank%20Preview%20-%20January%202024.pdf
  • In terms of data, December unemployment figures will be published at 1200GMT(0700ET), with consensus for the unemployment rate to tick up to 7.6%.
    • Dec. National Unemployment Rate, est. 7.6%, prior 7.5%

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