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BCCh Expected To Step Up Pace Of Easing

CHILE
  • The majority of analysts believe that the BCCh will accelerate the easing pace again today and cut the overnight rate by 100bp to 7.25% (2100GMT/1600ET). The larger-than-expected drop of inflation in December, decline of inflation expectations back to target and ongoing weakness in activity justify a further step up in the pace of easing. However, FX pressures and the potential desire for policy continuity has prompted some analysts to forecast another 75bp move. See the full MNI preview with analyst views here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/59711/MNI%20Chile%20Central%20Bank%20Preview%20-%20Jan%202024.pdf
  • USDCLP maintains a positive tone and the recent break of 924.67, the Nov 13 high, signals scope for 955.00, the Oct 16 high. Initial support is at 897.25 the 50-day EMA.
  • Meanwhile, Finance Minister Mario Marcel is due to speak at event on growth, social progress and fiscal sustainability at 1130GMT(0630ET). On the data front, IP, copper production and retail sales will all cross at 1200GMT.
    • Dec. Industrial Production YoY, prior 2.7%
    • Dec. Copper Production Total, prior 444,905
    • Dec. Retail Sales YoY, est. -1.8%, prior -2.4%

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