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BCCh Review - Hawkish Surprise

CHILE
  • Chile’s central bank surprised markets overnight by delivering an above consensus 100bp hike to the monetary policy interest rate from 9.75% to 10.75%. The decision was not unanimous, with one of the five member board opting for a milder 75bp hike and another voting for a bold 125bp increase.
  • Differing from previous monetary policy statements, the board stepped away from guiding the future path of policy, highlighted by the following paragraph:
  • “With this decision, the MPR is at the maximum level considered in the central scenario of the September Monetary Policy Report. Future movements of the policy rate will depend on the evolution of the macroeconomic scenario and its implications for the convergence of inflation to the target.”
  • However, the board remains “especially vigilant of the upward risks for inflation” while also noting that inflation expectations two years ahead remain above the target.
  • Focus turns to the central bank’s release of the quarterly monetary policy report, scheduled for 1400BST/0900ET.
  • The minutes will be released on September 22 and the next BCCh decision/statement will be published on October 12.
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