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Bear Flattening Ahead of CPI, Fedspeak and 30Y Supply

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys see a bear flattening after a sharp rally into yesterday’s close, with the front-end retracing more of the move as the Fed rate path drifts higher helped by Kashkari (’23 voter) pushing back on pivot talk. China’s top leadership saying it can’t relax necessary Covid measures and urges more precise, targeted Covid control took the wind out of the cheapening and more so the long end with the reduced growth implications.
  • 2YY +2.5bps at 4.606%, 5YY +1.4bps at 4.255%, 10YY +0.8bps at 4.092%, 30YY -0.1bps at 4.268%.
  • TYZ2 trades 6+ ticks higher at 110-17 off a session high of 110-25+ as it came closer to resistance at 111-09 (Nov 2 high), although the trend needle still points south with support seen at 109-10+ (Nov 4 low).
  • Data: CPI, real av earnings and jobless claims at 0830ET, monthly budget statement 1400ET
  • Fedspeak: Harker (’23 voter, text) 0900ET, Logan (’23, text) 0935ET, Daly (’24) 1100ET, Mester (’22) 1230ET and George (’22) 1330ET with text tbd for latter two.
  • Bond issuance: US Tsy $21B 30Y Bond auction (912810TL2) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy 13W, 26W bill auctions – 1130ET
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