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Free AccessBear Flattening On Pullback from Early Session Highs
Tsy futures have followed Bunds away from best levels, albeit with a slight initial lag, to last show +0-02+ at 111-06+, 0-02 off the base of its 0-07+ range. The contract managed to have a look above Friday’s high before fading, Friday’s low is 0-12+ below prevailing levels (110-26).
- Cash Tsys run 0.5-3.0bp higher, with the front end leading the move as the curve bear flattens.
- FOMC-dated OIS shows ~131.5bp of cuts through ’24, with only 10.5bp of easing now seen through the end of the Mar ’24 FOMC, comfortably off the recently observed dovish extremes after the well-documented recalibration of market pricing during early ’24.
- Weekend headline flow saw focus on Ron DeSantis suspending his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination and endorsing Donald Trump (Trump now has > 90% odds of winning the nomination, per, betting markets, as detailed in our earlier bullet).
- The local docket is light today, with only bill issuance and the leading index due.
- 3-. 5- & 7-Year Tsy coupon supply headlines on that side this week, the presence of that impending issuance may be aiding the bear flattening of the curve.
- Flash S&P Global PMIs (Wednesday) and regional Fed activity measures will eyed as the week progresses, along with durable goods (Thursday) & PCE (Friday) data.
- A reminder that the Fed is now in its pre-meeting blackout period ahead of next week’s FOMC.
- Also, the weekend saw headlines note that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will deliver what is being called a “major address” (on the US economy) on Thursday at ~13:35 NY.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.