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Bear Flattening With Data Keenly Watched

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys see a bear flattening as front end yields push off yesterday’s low but increasingly less so further out the curve after the post-JOLTS rally. The magnitude of the reaction to the JOLTS miss (10Y intraday swing of 15bps) suggests scope for further large moves ahead with data releases including ISM services and ADP employment ahead of payrolls on Friday.
  • 2YY +5.1bp at 3.877%, 5YY +4.1bp at 3.429%, 10YY +2.4bp at 3.363% and 30YY +0.4bp at 3.601%.
  • TYM3 trades 8+ ticks lower at 115-31 amidst below average volumes of 225k, close to session lows of 115-29 as it only slightly pulls back off yesterday’s high of 116-09 (initial resistance). A key short-term resistance is seen at 117-01+ (Mar 24 high) whilst support is seen at yesterday’s low of 115-02+.
  • Data: ADP employment Mar (0815ET), Trade balance Feb (0830ET), S&P Global US Service PMI Mar final (0945ET) and ISM Services Mar (1000ET) plus weekly MBA mortgage data (0700ET).
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $36B 17W bill auction (1130ET)

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