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Bearish Jobs Print As Unemployment Rate Jumps

CANADA
  • A net bearish jobs print sees USDCAD climb 30pips and notable GoC outperformance to Tsys (2YY -8.5bps vs -2.5bps Tsys)
  • A big miss for employment in August (-39.7k vs +15k consensus) and with no revisions to offset a cumulative -74k from the prior two months, was amplified by full-time jobs falling -77k for -90k in two months, almost 0.5% of the workforce.
  • There was no support this time from a declining labour force, with the participation rate bouncing a tenth, and as such the u/e rate jumped 0.5pps off record lows to 5.4% (5.0% expected), the highest since February.
  • The only caveat from a hawkish BoC perspective was slightly stronger than expected permanent hourly wage growth (from 5.4% to 5.6% Y/Y) with a similar increase in total hourly wage growth.
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