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Benign Inflation Pressures Persist, Limited Market Reaction

CHINA DATA

China November inflation data was close to expectations. Headline CPI printed at 1.6% y/y, in line with expectations and versus 2.1% in October. PPI was slightly better, relative to forecasts, coming in at -1.3% y/y, against -1.5% expected.

  • For the CPI, the m/m fell by -0.2%, as food prices stepped back to a 3.7% y/y pace from 7.0% last month. Non-food inflation remained very benign at 1.1% y/y, unchanged in the month while core (ex food and energy) was also unchanged at 0.60% y/y. 3 out of the 8 sub-indices recorded faster y/y momentum in November, versus just 1 in October.
  • For the PPI, outside of consumer goods (+2.0% y/y), falls were recorded for mining (-3.9%), and manufacturing (-3.2%), albeit at a reduced pace compared to last month.
  • Close to expectations for these prints has limited the market reaction, with markets also remaining forward looking around the re-opening theme.
  • China government bond yields have diverged somewhat from the continued soft pace in terms of core inflation, see the chart below.

Fig 1: China Core Inflation & 2yr Government Bond Yield

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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