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Berenberg brings forward hike expectations

BOE
  • Berenberg has pulled forward its first expected BoE hike of 15bp to May 2021 (previously August) with a second hike of 25bp in August (from November). They now expect a passive balance sheet unwind following the November meeting (instead of the February meeting). It cites "worsening inflation pressures".
  • Berenberg has revised its inflation forecasts higher: "We raise our Q4 2021 call to 4.0% from 3.9% as well as our Q1 2022 call to 4.1% from 3.9%. Thereafter, we have lifted our calls by c0.3ppt across the forecast horizon. For our annual calls, we raise 2021 to 2.4% from 2.3%, 2022 to 3.2% from 2.9% and 2023 to 2.5% from 2.2%."
  • "The UK now looks likely to reach its pre-pandemic level of GDP in Q1 2022 instead of Q2 2022 as previously forecast due to the significant upward revisions to past data."
  • Berenberg's growth forecasts have been revised to expect 1.5%Q/Q in Q3 (1.4% previously), 0.8% in Q4 (1.6%) and 1.2% in Q1-22 (1.4%).
  • "These changes lift 2021 to 6.9% from 6.3% but lower 2022 to 5.0% from 5.8%."
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