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Berenberg: May and August hikes with gilt sales beginning November

BOE
  • “We do not agree with the market’s conclusion that the BoE is likely to tighten policy even faster than previously expected for the remainder of 2022.”
  • “The BoE’s updated projections and assessing the commentary from Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference, the BoE has implicitly signalled that rates are more likely to rise at a slower pace than the market anticipated before the meeting.”
  • “We now look for two further 25bp hikes instead of one in 2022. We now expect the BoE to hike the Bank Rate by 25bps in both May and August to take the Bank Rate to 1% by year-end. We also bring forward our call for the BoE to start ‘active’ quantitative tightening via gilt sales to November 2022 from early 2023 as previously expected. We continue to project two 25bp rate hikes each year in 2023 and 2024. That would take the Bank Rate to 2.0% by end-2024, versus 1.75% previously.”
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