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Bertelsmann Sees Flat FY23 As TV Advertising Weakness Persists; Spreads Muted

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  • FY Revenue flat YoY with gains in book publishing, music & education offsetting a strong decline in TV and FX-related declines. Adj-EBITDA was down 2% with the company citing German TV advertising and the sale of Majorel shares as the reason.
  • Leverage remains at 1.8x (vs. an upper limit of 2.5x) while FY CFO came in EUR 500mn higher YoY at EUR 1.9bn.
  • FY guidance is vague like previous years though this is unsurprising given that they downgraded FY23 guidance at both H1 and Q3; guiding for “modest increase in revenues and earnings in our continuing operations” though due to the disposals we should expect a decline in reported figures.
  • 2026 targets have been revised lower to reflect the disposals; rev and EBITDA now seen at EUR 21bn (from EUR 26bn previously, vs. EUR 20.1 this year) and EUR 3.4bn (from EUR 4bn previously, vs. EUR 3.1bn this year).
  • EUR spreads are slightly wider but muted on the day. Bertelsmann bonds trade tight against higher rated media peers and in our view probably too tight to a broader €IG BBB Comms curve given their exposure to the structurally weak television industry.
  • That being said, the asset disposals are a credit positive and stable leverage under 2x over the year should limit the potential for adverse rating actions.


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