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Better Communication Over Policy Outlook Could Stabilize PLN

POLAND
  • NBP Governor Glapinski mentioned during his press conference yesterday that the central bank can safely rise interest rate up to 4% if growth remains strong.
  • Glapinski mentioned that the NBP never felt any pressure from the government to hike interest rates even though several former policymakers have criticized the central bank's late response to the surge in inflation.
  • He added that the NBP should maintain the current pace with 50bps monthly hikes, and currently favors at least one more rate hike.
  • Policymakers at the NBP seem to have understood that the uncertainty over the central bank's policy outlook had weighed on the PLN in the end of 2021, which keeps supporting inflation expectations.
  • By addressing a 'clearer communication' on its policy outlook, the NBP could benefit from a strengthening PLN (relative to Euro) due to the monetary policy divergence (with ECB), which could help anchor inflation expectations.
  • Next important data to watch will be December inflation coming out on January 7, with CPI expected to accelerate to 8.2% YoY.
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