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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FRANCE
Following on from the1035GMT bullet, it is not only opinion polls that have shown a shift towards centre-right Les Republicains (LR) candidate Valerie Pecresse, but also betting markets.
- The implied probability of incumbent President Emmanuel Macron winning a second term has fallen from 67.1% on 5 December to 56.5% presently according to Smarkets (see chart below). It should be noted that Macron remains the clear favourite according to both polls and betting markets.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Next French President, %
Source: Smarkets
- The decline for Macron has been driven by an increase in betting on a win for Pecresse, who now stands with a 23.3% implied probability of victory, up from 1% before her election as LR presidential candidate on 4 December.
- The two far-right candidates, broadcaster and journalist Eric Zemmour and Rassemblement National leader Marine Le Pen, have low implied probabilities of victory, standing at 8.3% and 7.4% respectively.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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