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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Betting markets have shown a strong shift back towards the incumbent Conservatives in the North Shropshire by-election taking place today. The contest could have significant implications for the gov't of PM Boris Johnson.
- A loss in the traditionally 'safe' Conservative seat would pile further pressure on an embattled PM, who is still dealing with the fallout of a major Conservative rebellion against COVID-19 passports as well as mixed messaging on the pandemic as new cases surge.
- If the Conservatives can hold onto the seat it could give Johnson a much-needed respite and temper the prospects of a leadership contest being launched against him in the new year.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning North Shropshire By-Election, %
Source: Smarkets
- In the wake of revelations of a rule-breaking Christmas party at Downing St in 2020, the Liberal Democrats saw a major spike in betting (see chart above). However over the past 48 hours, bettors have shifted back towards the Conservatives, who are defending a majority of over 22k in the rural seat.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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