Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
ARGENTINA
Ahead of the 22 October presidential election, political betting markets continue to show right-wing libertarian candidate Javier Milei as the strong favourite to win the presidency. This is despite an apparent tightening of opinion polls in the last days before the pre-election ban on publishing polls/forecasts came in on 14 October.
- Data from electionbettingodds.com, which compiles data from FTX, Betfair, Predictit, Smarkets, and Polymarket, gives Milei a 75.0% implied probability of winning the presidency. This compares to 19.0% for the Peronist candidate, Economy Minister Sergio Massa, and just a 6.0% implied probability for conservative former security minister Patricia Bullrich.
- Opinion polling in the run-up to the vote have shown a small narrowing. In September Milei's average lead over second-placed Massa stood at 3.8%, but in October this fell to 2.7%.
- A run-off between Milei and Massa looks the most likely scenario. However, given the high stakes in the election and the unreliability of polls before the August PASO primaries (where Massa was portrayed as the comfortable favourite only for Milei to come first) there is a notable prospect of an upset.
Chart 1. Argentina Betting Market Implied Probability of Victory, %
Source: electionbettingodds.com. FTX, Betfair, Predictit, Smarkets, Polymarket
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok