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Bettors: +75% Probability PM Out In 2022/23; Backbench Rumblings Grow Louder


Political betting markets are showing over a 75% implied probability that PM Liz Truss leaves office in 2022 or 2023, ahead of the next general election due in 2024. This comes as Westminster rumours of backbench Conservative MPs considering ways to remove the PM grow louder.

  • Data from Smarkets shows a 14.3% implied probability that Truss is replaced in 2022, a massive 62.5% chance she leaves office in 2023, falling to a 13.2% probability of an exit in 2024, and just an 8.7% chance that she leaves office in 2025 or later (i.e. that she wins the next election).
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability: 'When Will Liz Truss Be Replaced As PM?'

Source: Smarkets

  • Despite being in office just over a month, Truss is already supposedly facing a potential mutiny on the Conservative benches. Alexander Brown at The Scotsman, "Hearing multiple MPs have submitted letters of no-confidence in Liz Truss..."
  • Kay Balls in The Spectator on last night's difficult meeting between PM & backbenchers: "It means there is increased talk about Truss's position with her party."
  • Any attempt to remove Truss would need change in party rules, but given the poor polling for the Conservatives, market turbulence, and potential for a U-turn on fiscal event, this scenario is not an unthinkable one.

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