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Bettors See Marin As Narrow Favourite To Remain PM After 2 Apr Election


Political betting markets show incumbent Sanna Marin as a narrow favourite to retain the prime minister's office after the upcoming legislative election on 2 April. Data from Smarkets gives Marin a 50.3% implied probability of being prime minister after the election, compared to 41.7% for centre-right National Coalition Party head Petteri Orpo and 9.5% for right-wing nationalist Finns Party leader Riikka Purra.

  • Social Democratic Party leader Marin's higher implied probability is likely to stem from the fact that she sits as the incumbent PM at the head of a five-party centre-left coalition, meaning if this coalition retains a majority it could prove relatively easy to re-form.
  • Given how tight opinion polls are the SDP, National Coalition Party or Finns Party could emerge as the largest, and as such gain the first mandate to seek to form a gov't. Should former finance minister Orpo's National Coalition emerge as the largest and lead the next gov't it could see a shift in the Finnish gov't towards spending cuts and austerity in an effort to mitigate the country's debt levels, which have risen under the Marin gov't (in part due to the pandemic).
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Being Next PM After Election, %

Source: Smarkets

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