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Beveridge And Phillips Curves Show More Progress Than In The US

CANADA
  • Ahead of the upcoming BoC decision for Sept 6, for which market pricing has softened with currently circa +6bp priced, we compare the latest evolution in labor market slack.
  • Looking at both the Beveridge curve and a core CPI Phillips curve, the trend higher in the Canadian unemployment rate to 5.5% in July from a recent low of 5.0% (April) and before that 4.9% (Jul’22), does help at least show the first signs of a move towards flatter parts of the respective curves.
  • It’s in contrast to the US where there has been very little move off vertical areas of the curves, primarily as the unemployment rate of 3.5% remains within 0.1pps of multi-decade lows as it defies FOMC expectations of a drift higher.

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