US
President Joe Biden is seen to be nearing the point where he officially announces his withdrawal from the presidential race as the slow but steady series of Democrat lawmakers calling for him to drop out continues. On 18 July, Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) became the second US senator to call for Biden to end his candidacy.
- Political betting markets have swung around wildly over the past week, but now Biden is assigned just a 16.1% implied probability of being the Democrat nominee according to electionbettingodds.com [compliling Betfair, Smarkets and Polymarket data]. VP Kamala Harris is the strong favourite with a 59.0% implied probability. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (8.1%), California Governor Gavin Newsom (7.3%) and former First Lady Michelle Obama (5.7%) are the other leading candidates.
- July 18 saw a flurry of reports suggesting that former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)'s efforts to convince Biden to drop out were beginning to work, with language changing to suggest Biden is more 'receptive' to calls for his withdrawal, which could come as soon as 'this weekend'.
- Notably, the increased probability of Biden not being the Democratic candidate has boosted the party's chances of winning the election according to bettors. The implied probability of Republican candidate former President Donald Trump winning has fallen to 64.9% from 71.9% on 18 July, while the implied probability of a Democrat win has risen from 27.0% to 30.3% according to data from Smarkets.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Democratic Presidential Nominee, %
Source: electionbettingodds.com
260 words