Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
Elections analytics firm 538 have published their new 2024 presidentialelection model, forecasting that President Biden has a 53% implied probability of winning in November. The model gives former president Trump a 47% implied probability of winning. The model appears to buck polling giving Trump a lead across key swings states in favour of an underlying political environment which favours Biden.
- 538 notes that since Trump's Manhattan criminal conviction polling has tightened from Trump +1.7 to Trump +1.0, with the model predicting, "there is more room for Biden to improve, with economic and political “fundamentals” indicators pulling his predicted margin in the national popular vote up from -1.0 to +2.3 points."
- 538 cautions that, "there is still a lot of room for the polls to change," before Election Day, noting that there is, "3-in-10 chance of either Trump or Biden winning a landslide of more than 350 electoral votes."
- The model appears to support an increasingly consensus view that the race is currently a dead-heat which could swing either way in the coming months depending on how the political environment unfolds.
Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Model
Source: 538
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok