MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY98 Bln Via OMO Thurs; Rates Unchanged

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1305 Thurs; -0.79% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS THURS

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1305 THURS VS 7.1312

MNI NBP WATCH: Rates Held As 2024 Outlook Remains Hawkish

MNI BRIEF: ADP's Richardson Sees Pockets of Weakness in US Job Market

Australia May Exports +2.8%; Imports +3.9%

MNI:AUSTRALIA MAY TRADE BALANCE A$+5773

US Treasury Auction Calendar

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Biden Slightly Favoured To Win White House, According To New 538 Model

US
Homepagemarkets-real-timePolitical RiskPolitical Risk BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsPolitical Market News

Elections analytics firm 538 have published their new 2024 presidentialelection model, forecasting that President Biden has a 53% implied probability of winning in November. The model gives former president Trump a 47% implied probability of winning. The model appears to buck polling giving Trump a lead across key swings states in favour of an underlying political environment which favours Biden.

  • 538 notes that since Trump's Manhattan criminal conviction polling has tightened from Trump +1.7 to Trump +1.0, with the model predicting, "there is more room for Biden to improve, with economic and political “fundamentals” indicators pulling his predicted margin in the national popular vote up from -1.0 to +2.3 points."
  • 538 cautions that, "there is still a lot of room for the polls to change," before Election Day, noting that there is, "3-in-10 chance of either Trump or Biden winning a landslide of more than 350 electoral votes."
  • The model appears to support an increasingly consensus view that the race is currently a dead-heat which could swing either way in the coming months depending on how the political environment unfolds.

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Model

Keep reading...Show less
186 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Elections analytics firm 538 have published their new 2024 presidentialelection model, forecasting that President Biden has a 53% implied probability of winning in November. The model gives former president Trump a 47% implied probability of winning. The model appears to buck polling giving Trump a lead across key swings states in favour of an underlying political environment which favours Biden.

  • 538 notes that since Trump's Manhattan criminal conviction polling has tightened from Trump +1.7 to Trump +1.0, with the model predicting, "there is more room for Biden to improve, with economic and political “fundamentals” indicators pulling his predicted margin in the national popular vote up from -1.0 to +2.3 points."
  • 538 cautions that, "there is still a lot of room for the polls to change," before Election Day, noting that there is, "3-in-10 chance of either Trump or Biden winning a landslide of more than 350 electoral votes."
  • The model appears to support an increasingly consensus view that the race is currently a dead-heat which could swing either way in the coming months depending on how the political environment unfolds.

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Model

Keep reading...Show less