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Biden Slightly Favoured To Win White House, According To New 538 Model

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Elections analytics firm 538 have published their new 2024 presidentialelection model, forecasting that President Biden has a 53% implied probability of winning in November. The model gives former president Trump a 47% implied probability of winning. The model appears to buck polling giving Trump a lead across key swings states in favour of an underlying political environment which favours Biden.

  • 538 notes that since Trump's Manhattan criminal conviction polling has tightened from Trump +1.7 to Trump +1.0, with the model predicting, "there is more room for Biden to improve, with economic and political “fundamentals” indicators pulling his predicted margin in the national popular vote up from -1.0 to +2.3 points."
  • 538 cautions that, "there is still a lot of room for the polls to change," before Election Day, noting that there is, "3-in-10 chance of either Trump or Biden winning a landslide of more than 350 electoral votes."
  • The model appears to support an increasingly consensus view that the race is currently a dead-heat which could swing either way in the coming months depending on how the political environment unfolds.

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Model

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Elections analytics firm 538 have published their new 2024 presidentialelection model, forecasting that President Biden has a 53% implied probability of winning in November. The model gives former president Trump a 47% implied probability of winning. The model appears to buck polling giving Trump a lead across key swings states in favour of an underlying political environment which favours Biden.

  • 538 notes that since Trump's Manhattan criminal conviction polling has tightened from Trump +1.7 to Trump +1.0, with the model predicting, "there is more room for Biden to improve, with economic and political “fundamentals” indicators pulling his predicted margin in the national popular vote up from -1.0 to +2.3 points."
  • 538 cautions that, "there is still a lot of room for the polls to change," before Election Day, noting that there is, "3-in-10 chance of either Trump or Biden winning a landslide of more than 350 electoral votes."
  • The model appears to support an increasingly consensus view that the race is currently a dead-heat which could swing either way in the coming months depending on how the political environment unfolds.

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Model

Keep reading...Show less