Big day for Turkey tomorrow, with......>

TURKISH LIRA: Big day for Turkey tomorrow, with their Rate Announcement. The

estimates are wide from 50bps to 800bps. The median has also varied from 225 to

200, and we are now today at 250bps cut to 21.50%.

Gist is that a relatively measured rate cut of 200bps accompanied by reassurance

that the CBRT will not be cutting rates aggressively would be the best outcome,

especially if Erdogan makes positive comments saying that Uysal will be allowed

to make his own decision and he will not interfere. To expect 900bps by the end

of the year, inflation would have to exceed expectation by decelerating much

faster and the Lira would have to remain relatively stable.