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Bitcoin: Easy Gains, Easy Losses

FOREX
  • Selling pressures on Bitcoin have been rising significantly in the past few weeks after the cryptocurrency reached an all-time high of 68,992 on November 10th.
  • The sharp consolidation in the US Dollar in the past two month have not been supporting Bitcoin, which is down over 40% from its record high and currently trading slightly above the $40,000 level.
  • The recent rise in real interest rates, the deceleration in global liquidity and the fall in the total amount of negative-yielding debt, which could be seen as a measure of market stress, could have been some of the factors behind the consolidation in Bitcoin prices.
  • Interestingly, gold prices have remained steady since the start of the year and continue to oscillate around the $1,800 level.
  • A major characteristic of gold is that it is defined as a ‘zero-beta’ asset, which tends to either remain flat or appreciate in periods of market selloffs.
  • Hence, the recent consolidation in US growth stocks (with Nasdaq composite breaking below its 200DMA) could increase the downward pressure on Bitcoin in the near term.
  • Key level to watch below $40,000 stands at $30,000, which acted as a strong support in the past year (rejected several times in the last drawdown).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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