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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
STIR markets are indicating the conclusion of the tightening cycle within the $-bloc and are poised for an assertive easing in 2024, ahead of today's FOMC decision at 1300ET and Fed Chair Powell's presser at 1430ET.
- The Fed will likely lower its median "dot plot" estimate for policy interest rates at the end of 2024 to around 4.9%, former officials and staffers told MNI, as expectations build for the first rate cut to come as early as the year's first half.
- "My expectation is that the median will probably show two 25-basis-point cuts next year," said ex-Boston Fed chief Eric Rosengren, whose forecast is for two to three cuts starting as early as the second quarter.
- Nov’24 expectations and the cumulative easing stand at: 4.34%, -95bps (FOMC); 4.08%, -92bps (BOC); 4.03%, -30bps (RBA); and 4.89%, -67bps (RBNZ).
Figure 1: $-Bloc STIR
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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