Bloomberg Survey Still Supports Saudi/Russia Cut Extension Through Q1 2024

Saudi and Russia are still expected to extend output curbs through Q1 2024 according to a Bloomberg survey but more respondents now lean towards a further cut than last week.

• The headlines have been overshadowed by Nigeria/Angola reluctance to accept 2024 production quota curbs, but the core expectations of the meeting still surround the key voluntary cut supply agreements of Saudi/Russia.
• Expectations ultimately hinge between an extension or further cuts in pre-OPEC summaries from the biggest market players with most sell-side forecasts leaning to the former in base case scenarios.
• “If Saudi Arabia were then merely to extend its voluntary cuts, the price would likely fall somewhat in the short term,” said Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank.
• Its research flagged the fragility in crude this week as it sold off to just the announcement of a delayed meeting though has since largely recovered.