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BLS Productivity Correction Doesn’t Change Trend

US DATA
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  • The BLS has noted a correction (see here) to labor productivity data through 2019-23 but as the table in the link above shows, the impact is minimal.
  • Both 2022 and 2023 on average have seen no difference in the trend, whilst small 0.1pp annualized changes in Q3 (lower) and Q4 (higher) were offsetting.
  • It doesn’t change the outlook ahead of Thursday’s Q1 preliminary release, with analysts looking for an abrupt pullback to 0.7% growth after three particularly strong quarters averaging 3.7% annualized.
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  • The BLS has noted a correction (see here) to labor productivity data through 2019-23 but as the table in the link above shows, the impact is minimal.
  • Both 2022 and 2023 on average have seen no difference in the trend, whilst small 0.1pp annualized changes in Q3 (lower) and Q4 (higher) were offsetting.
  • It doesn’t change the outlook ahead of Thursday’s Q1 preliminary release, with analysts looking for an abrupt pullback to 0.7% growth after three particularly strong quarters averaging 3.7% annualized.