BMO, Deutsche, Unicredit Below-Consensus Core CPI Takes

A few below-consensus June core CPI views:

• BMO (+0.5% headline, +0.4% core): "Amid advancing demand, some prices [e.g. airfares] continued to post outsized increases in returning to their pre-pandemic levels.... Other prices continued to escalate owing to supply shortages and other capacity constraints...new vehicle price hikes likely saw little reprieve, although it looks like used vehicle prices ebbed a little in June...Many other prices continued to move noticeably higher reflecting increased input costs...and the boosted ability of firms to pass these on...index-heavy owners' equivalent rent appears poised to breakout from its sub-2% y/y funk in the wake of 15% home price growth. As such, core inflation with at least a '3 handle' could prove to be quite persistent."
• Deutsche (+0.54% headline, +0.39% core): "We will be much more focused on the details within the report, particularly whether used car prices, which contributed almost 30bps to last month's core print, begin to fall as they did in June's data on wholesale car prices from Manheim. We will also be watching for signs that higher inflation in Covid-centric categories such as airfares and lodging away are spreading to other categories such as rents. As of yet, this has largely not happened, supporting the Fed's narrative that such inflationary pressures are transitory."
• Unicredit (+0.4% headline, +0.3% core): "Upward effects likely came from the ongoing normalization of consumer-facing services (e.g. airfares and accommodation) and some further pass-through of higher input prices for goods."