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BMO: One Of The "Most Tradeable" FOMC Minutes To Reinforce Flattening

FED

BMO FICC calls this Wednesday's FOMC minutes "one of the most tradable Minutes releases in recent memory and, if anything, we expect that it will serve to reinforce the ongoing flattening bias."

  • The flattening expectation is in part due to BMO's expectation that the Fed is unlikely to sell Treasuries outright, with such sales reserved only for MBS and that would be "2023 business at the earliest".
  • They look for "greater information on how the Committee is contemplating the balance sheet rundown" ("whether the Fed will ramp up the rundown caps akin to the last cycle or opt to simply begin the process at its maximum speed will also be an important detail").
  • Also in play are "how many 50 bp rate hikes will ultimately punctuate the campaign to bring policy into restrictive territory". "Further clarity on how the Committee envisions the arc of the hiking cycle will refine the shape of the curve".

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