BMO's Ian Lyngen and Aaron Kohli eyed.......>

US VIEW: BMO's Ian Lyngen and Aaron Kohli eyed positive anecdotes on Fri Dec

NFP: 

- "1) ADP Employment Change came in significantly higher than expected for

December at 250k vs. 190k expected, 190k prior. 

- "2) The January unemployment rate (December's data) tends to come in lower

than expected with the January number below estimates 57% of the time, above

estimates 24% of the time and as expected the remaining 19%. 

- "3) Challenger Job Cuts, Dec: decreased to -3.6%" vs 30.1% in November. 

- "4) Liscio: Estimates +190k for private payrolls and +195k for headline."

- They also cited negative anecdotes are as follows that:

- "1) Historically, the Jan. NFP number (Dec data) has had a slight negative

bias missing 55% of the time and surprising on the upside 45% of the time. The

average miss for the Jan. number is -93k and when the data surprises to the

upside, the average beat is +63k. 

- "2) Labor Differential: Jobs-Plentiful - Jobs-Hard-to-get decreased to 20.5

Dec from 20.7 Nov."