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Free AccessBMO's Ian Lyngen said Tsy "mkt's...>
US TSYS/RESEARCH: BMO's Ian Lyngen said Tsy "mkt's response" to initial US Tsy
Aug refunding news silence on Ultra Long Bond idea "was a rather dramatic
flattening of the curve, as the long-bond outperformed on the absence of any
ultra-long bond color. While we didn't hear of anyone in the market specifically
calling for an ultra-long announcement this week, there was obviously at least
some positioning around the event risk. That said, if the mkt consensus was that
a 50-year was set to be announced today and the Tsy Dept disappointed, the
30-year sector would have done a lot better than a 2 bp rally," Lyngen added.
(Tsy later said still studying Ultra Long Bd, no decision time yet tho.)
- But he said on "other hand, the curve would probably have been a lot steeper
ahead of time, so the lackluster response seems proportional to the
disappointment. We're less convinced that a 50- or 100-yr is the 'correct' move
for addressing borrowing needs, but that doesn't mean that the political climate
hasn't made the prospects appealing for the administration." He noted Wed saw
"particularly elevated volumes, a dynamic that confirms the importance of the
flattening": cash Tsys traded at 114% of 10-day moving avg.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.