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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessHICP Tracking at 2.4%Y/Y - One tenth below consensus
- The Bloomberg consensus for Eurozone HICP was 2.5%Y/Y ahead of today's data. We have now received just over half of the national data in weight terms.
- The 0.4ppt downside surprise to France HICP this morning and 0.2ppt downside surprise to Italian HICP would pull the Eurozone aggregate HICP print down to track at around 2.4%Y/Y. This assumes that consensus is correct that German HICP comes in at +2.4%Y/Y on Tuesday.
- However, if German HICP comes in just one tenth below expectations at 2.3%Y/Y, the tracking estimate would be around 2.36%Y/Y - so close to rounded down to mean a 2 tenth downside surprise to the overall Eurozone HICP print.
- On our calculations we would need to see German HICP come in at least 2, possibly 3 tenths higher than consensus expectations (at 2.6%-2.7%Y/Y) in order to see Eurozone HICP come in in line with the Bloomberg consensus of 2.5%Y/Y.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.