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HICP Tracking at 2.4%Y/Y - One tenth below consensus

EUROZONE DATA
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  • The Bloomberg consensus for Eurozone HICP was 2.5%Y/Y ahead of today's data. We have now received just over half of the national data in weight terms.
  • The 0.4ppt downside surprise to France HICP this morning and 0.2ppt downside surprise to Italian HICP would pull the Eurozone aggregate HICP print down to track at around 2.4%Y/Y. This assumes that consensus is correct that German HICP comes in at +2.4%Y/Y on Tuesday.
  • However, if German HICP comes in just one tenth below expectations at 2.3%Y/Y, the tracking estimate would be around 2.36%Y/Y - so close to rounded down to mean a 2 tenth downside surprise to the overall Eurozone HICP print.
  • On our calculations we would need to see German HICP come in at least 2, possibly 3 tenths higher than consensus expectations (at 2.6%-2.7%Y/Y) in order to see Eurozone HICP come in in line with the Bloomberg consensus of 2.5%Y/Y.
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  • The Bloomberg consensus for Eurozone HICP was 2.5%Y/Y ahead of today's data. We have now received just over half of the national data in weight terms.
  • The 0.4ppt downside surprise to France HICP this morning and 0.2ppt downside surprise to Italian HICP would pull the Eurozone aggregate HICP print down to track at around 2.4%Y/Y. This assumes that consensus is correct that German HICP comes in at +2.4%Y/Y on Tuesday.
  • However, if German HICP comes in just one tenth below expectations at 2.3%Y/Y, the tracking estimate would be around 2.36%Y/Y - so close to rounded down to mean a 2 tenth downside surprise to the overall Eurozone HICP print.
  • On our calculations we would need to see German HICP come in at least 2, possibly 3 tenths higher than consensus expectations (at 2.6%-2.7%Y/Y) in order to see Eurozone HICP come in in line with the Bloomberg consensus of 2.5%Y/Y.