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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FINANCIALS
Monte Paschi (BMPS IM); Italian state looking at further stake sales; credit tightening on M&A hopes.
- MPS is 39% owned by the Italian state, having been bailed out most recently in 2017 (after a long history of problems). A lock-up expired earlier today and the Italian press is reporting a sale of up to 10%, possibly soon, before the 20-May dividend payment point.
- Italy has a long tail of small (subscale?) banks, but industry consolidation has been slow in the face of domestic resistance but MPS’s CEO recently did say consolidation is “inevitable” though BPER then promptly denied it was interested.
- The equity is one of the best performers in Europe this morning and the cash curve continues to tighten: senior unsecured as much as 4bp tighter (OAS) and up to 20bp tighter YTD. The loss of the implicit state guarantee (such as it was) is being disregarded but potential for a takeover is the key hope the credit is feeling, in our view.
- BMPS’s curve continues to trade wider of the (better-rated) local mid-size peers (see graphic), so that takeover hope isn’t at egregious levels but this is a bank with a long and relatively error-strewn track record.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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