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BNP-Ageas Deal Puts Focus On BCP Stake Sale Next; Positive For BCP

FINANCIALS

A corollary of the BNP purchase of Fosun’s stake in Ageas is that BCP’s sale process comes back into focus, we feel. This should be spread positive for the Portuguese bank, in our view. (656 HK)(BCP PL)


  • Fosun owns 20% of BCP in Portugal and reports around a sale of this emerged around a month ago. Fosun has enough short-term liquidity, acc to BBG, such that this is far from a fire sale plus today’s sale of its stake in Ageas gives it more room to negotiate, we feel.
  • Caixabank and BBVA are seen as bidders for the BCP stake (Santander is already a top 3 bank in Portugal so a less likely bidder) and the bank coming under control of a larger peer would likely be spread positive.
  • Sonangol, the Angolan state oil company owns c.19.5% in BCP, too so a deal would require assent here but, reportedly, pressure is being applied to this non-strategic owner to be open to consolidation.
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