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BNP Does Not Expect 2022 Prices Spikes For EU Gas This Year

NATURAL GAS

European natural gas markets will remain tight until new significant LNG volumes from the US and Qatar emerge in 2025/2026 but prices are not expected to repeat surges as seen in 2022, BNP Paribas said in a note.

  • The bank forecasts TTF prices to average €35/MWh in Q3, €63/MWh in Q4 and €73/MWh in 1Q24.
  • Supply disruptions are a key upside risk to TTF prices given the low flexibility of EU gas markets since the halt of Russian pipeline gas flows. The delay of last year’s annual maintenance programmes or lightened maintenance due to higher prices and the need for gas supplies has enhanced that risk, BNP said.

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