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BNZ Above Consensus For CPI, But Below RBNZ

NEW ZEALAND

Ahead of today’s Q1 CPI print BNZ write “we see the figure coming in below the RBNZ’s 1.8% q/q estimate (BNZ is at 1.7%, consensus is at 1.5%). We also expect the key non-tradeables figure to come in below the RBNZ’s estimate of 2.0% (BNZ is at 1.5%). All very well, but the data remain too strong for comfort even at the lower end of estimates, hence the market is well priced for another 25bps hike next month. With the 2-year swap rate up considerably from this time last week, market reaction could well be more significant to a downside than upside surprise.”

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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