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BoA on NBP, Policy Rate Could Reach 8% by Year-End

POLAND
  • The loose macro policy mix is set to persist until the 2023 elections, despite clear evidence of above-potential growth and prolonged inflation overshooting.
  • The pro-government NBP may bring the policy rate to 6.75% by July and will probably attempt to stop the hiking cycle there.
  • But with substantial negative ex-post and ex-ante real rates, BoA thinks the PLN will come under depreciation pressures, forcing further rate hikes later in the year, probably towards 8% by year-end.
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