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BoC's Gravelle Broadly Keeps To The Script

CANADA
  • BoC’s Gravelle broadly consistent with past Macklem commentary on mon pol with regards to:
  • *GRAVELLE: BOC WILL BE 'AS FORCEFUL AS NEEDED' IN RAISING RATES – bbg
  • *GRAVELLE: BOC MAY PAUSE HIKES AT NEUTRAL IF PRICE GAINS REVERSE - bbg
  • *SUPPLY CHAIN WOES MAY PROMPT BOC TO HIKE PAST NEUTRAL: GRAVELLE - bbg
  • And on the lower oil beta for CAD: “We expect the recent increase in commodity prices to boost the level of business investment in Canada by less than half of what our models generally predict based on historical relationships.” along with USD strength preventing CAD from rising as much.
  • BAX curve sees the earlier increase in the front end pause whilst little changed further out, still led by the red pack up 10 ticks. The terminal rate sits between previous highs and after the last BoC decision, crudely implied an overnight rate of circa 3%, the top end of the BoC’s 2-3% neutral range.

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