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GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK

Modi, AMLO Top Major Economy Leader Poll, Macron Last

AUDUSD TECHS

Under Pressure

EURJPY TECHS

Trend Condition Remains Bearish

CANADA
CANADA: BOC shadow policy council has 4 of 10 members calling for a rate cut to
0.10% at June 3 meeting from current 0.25%. Other six called for rates to be
unchanged.
-CD Howe think tank's panel votes on what BOC should do, not what's expected to
happen.
-Rates shouldn't rise for at least a year, as far as the group looks ahead.
-"Despite some positive news in consumer spending in sectors that have reopened
following the COVID-19 economic shutdown, the output gap will create downward
pressure."
-Important BOC to be transparent about balance sheet expansion "for Bank
operational independence and credibility."
-Note: little precedent for BOC to move benchmark rate in anything other than
25bps increments. Past Governors said moving by less sends fuzzy message. Gov
Poloz and his replacement next month Macklem both signaled negative rates would
be destabilizing.