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BoE Cut Pricing Eases Alongside Gilts, Little changed On Day

STIR

BoE pricing moves back from dovish session extremes alongside the selling in gilts.

  • Still, that only takes BoE-dated OIS back to levels seen earlier today, with ~67bp of ’24 cuts priced.
  • The first cut is near enough fully priced through the Aug MPC.
  • SONIA futures are -0.5 to +2.0, also off session highs.
  • The previously covered soft UK labour market surveys have allowed UK bonds and STIRs to outperform core global FI peers today.
  • Plenty of UK risk due between now and tomorrow's SONIA open, with comments from BoE hawk Mann (17:00 London) & official ONS labour market data (07:00 Tuesday) scheduled.
  • Our full labour market report preview will be published shortly.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Mar-245.200+1.1
May-245.170-1.9
Jun-245.081-10.8
Aug-244.940-24.8
Sep-244.811-37.8
Nov-244.647-54.1
Dec-244.520-66.9
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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