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BOE DMP survey due at 9:30GMT

UK DATA
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  • The DMP survey is due at 9:30GMT.
  • The key components worth watching in here are the inflation expectation components and wage expectations and employment growth component.
  • The previous report (January data and seen by the MPC at their February policy meeting) saw expected wage growth steady at 5.2% on a 3-month basis. This was the seventh consecutive release that saw the 3-month average rate at 5.1% or 5.2% (and is down from a peak of 6.0% in December 2022).
  • Expected price growth in January continued to slow on a 3-month average basis falling to 5.6% from 5.9% in the 3-months to Decmeber and 6.6% in the 3-months to November. Between June 2022 and October 2023 the survey stayed in a 7.1-8.1% range. However there was some concern that the single-month rate picked up again to 5.8% in January from 4.9% in December, so it will be interesting to see where the February print comes in.
  • In terms of employment growth, the 3-month average of 2.4% of realised employment growth in the 3-months to January was the lowest since November 2021. However, expected employment growth picked up again to 1.7% on the 3-months to January - the highest level since the 3-months to June 2023 (and from a trough of 1.2% seen in both September and October 2023).
  • Note that the BOE has been placing an increasing weight on this survey over the past few months - and even more so since the official ONS labour market data started to throw up more issues.
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  • The DMP survey is due at 9:30GMT.
  • The key components worth watching in here are the inflation expectation components and wage expectations and employment growth component.
  • The previous report (January data and seen by the MPC at their February policy meeting) saw expected wage growth steady at 5.2% on a 3-month basis. This was the seventh consecutive release that saw the 3-month average rate at 5.1% or 5.2% (and is down from a peak of 6.0% in December 2022).
  • Expected price growth in January continued to slow on a 3-month average basis falling to 5.6% from 5.9% in the 3-months to Decmeber and 6.6% in the 3-months to November. Between June 2022 and October 2023 the survey stayed in a 7.1-8.1% range. However there was some concern that the single-month rate picked up again to 5.8% in January from 4.9% in December, so it will be interesting to see where the February print comes in.
  • In terms of employment growth, the 3-month average of 2.4% of realised employment growth in the 3-months to January was the lowest since November 2021. However, expected employment growth picked up again to 1.7% on the 3-months to January - the highest level since the 3-months to June 2023 (and from a trough of 1.2% seen in both September and October 2023).
  • Note that the BOE has been placing an increasing weight on this survey over the past few months - and even more so since the official ONS labour market data started to throw up more issues.