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BoE Pricing Little Changed To A Touch Firmer On The Day

STIR

Wider gyrations in core global FI markets result in limited fluctuations in BoE-dated OIS before the BoE’s DMP survey helps facilitate a modest hawkish adjustment (ranges remain contained on the day), with wider core global FI also softening a touch in more recent trade.

  • That leaves ~10bp of tightening showing for next month’s MPC, while terminal policy rate pricing is located ~21bp above prevailing levels i.e. just under 85% chances of one further 25bp hike are currently priced.
  • As noted elsewhere, mixed Decision Maker Panel data for September will be a little concerning for the BoE as expected wage growth and realised wage growth both picked up relative to August data (see our full write up covering that release here).
  • Participants now look ahead to comments from BoE’s Broadbent. He will participate in a panel discussion from 10:45 BST.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Nov-235.289+10.1
Dec-235.362+17.4
Feb-245.400+21.3
Mar-245.399+21.1
May-245.360+17.3
Jun-245.320+13.3
Aug-245.255+6.7
Sep-245.165-2.2
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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