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BoE Pricing Moves Back Towards 50bp Of '24 Cuts

STIR

Yesterday’s recovery in core global FI markets extends, after BoE Governor Bailley’s comments and an extension lower in crude oil futures allowed SONIA futures to rally into Wednesday's close.

  • That leaves contracts running 0.5-8.5bp firmer through the blues.
  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~46.5bp of ’24 cuts, rebounding after yesterday’s post-CPI look below 35bp.
  • The first full 25bp cut is once again fully priced come the end of the September ’24 MPC.
  • BoE’s Greene will speak again today, although we have heard from her on several occasions over the last week or so.
  • That will likely leave focus on cross-market and macro matters.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
May-245.195-0.3
Jun-245.109-8.9
Aug-244.994-20.4
Sep-244.920-27.8
Nov-244.809-38.9
Dec-244.734-46.5
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Yesterday’s recovery in core global FI markets extends, after BoE Governor Bailley’s comments and an extension lower in crude oil futures allowed SONIA futures to rally into Wednesday's close.

  • That leaves contracts running 0.5-8.5bp firmer through the blues.
  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~46.5bp of ’24 cuts, rebounding after yesterday’s post-CPI look below 35bp.
  • The first full 25bp cut is once again fully priced come the end of the September ’24 MPC.
  • BoE’s Greene will speak again today, although we have heard from her on several occasions over the last week or so.
  • That will likely leave focus on cross-market and macro matters.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
May-245.195-0.3
Jun-245.109-8.9
Aug-244.994-20.4
Sep-244.920-27.8
Nov-244.809-38.9
Dec-244.734-46.5