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BoE Pricing Moves Back Towards 50bp Of '24 Cuts Following U.S. CPI

STIR
HomepageBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

U.S. CPI data more than reverses this morning’s hawkish adjustments in GBP STIRs.

  • That leaves ~12.5bp/50% odds of a cut priced for the August meeting (vs. 11bp in the run up to the release).
  • The Dec MPC contract moves back to pricing just under 50bp of cumulative cuts vs. ~44.5bp ahead of the U.S. print.
  • SONIA futures are flat to 8.5, generally just off recent session highs.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Aug-245.073-12.7
Sep-244.984-21.6
Nov-244.811-38.9
Dec-244.706-49.4
Feb-254.553-64.7
Mar-254.452-74.8
May-254.319-88.1
Jun-254.220-98.0
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U.S. CPI data more than reverses this morning’s hawkish adjustments in GBP STIRs.

  • That leaves ~12.5bp/50% odds of a cut priced for the August meeting (vs. 11bp in the run up to the release).
  • The Dec MPC contract moves back to pricing just under 50bp of cumulative cuts vs. ~44.5bp ahead of the U.S. print.
  • SONIA futures are flat to 8.5, generally just off recent session highs.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Aug-245.073-12.7
Sep-244.984-21.6
Nov-244.811-38.9
Dec-244.706-49.4
Feb-254.553-64.7
Mar-254.452-74.8
May-254.319-88.1
Jun-254.220-98.0