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BoE Pricing Moves Back Towards 50bp Of '24 Cuts Following U.S. CPI

STIR

U.S. CPI data more than reverses this morning’s hawkish adjustments in GBP STIRs.

  • That leaves ~12.5bp/50% odds of a cut priced for the August meeting (vs. 11bp in the run up to the release).
  • The Dec MPC contract moves back to pricing just under 50bp of cumulative cuts vs. ~44.5bp ahead of the U.S. print.
  • SONIA futures are flat to 8.5, generally just off recent session highs.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Aug-245.073-12.7
Sep-244.984-21.6
Nov-244.811-38.9
Dec-244.706-49.4
Feb-254.553-64.7
Mar-254.452-74.8
May-254.319-88.1
Jun-254.220-98.0
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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