Free Trial

BoE Pricing Reverses Initial GDP-Inspired Move

STIR

As noted elsewhere, BoE-dated OIS has faded from dovish post-UK GDP extremes to last print little changed on the day.

  • That leaves ~75bp of cuts showing for '24.
  • The reversal probably stems from a combination of the idea that Q4 UK GDP data doesn’t meaningfully alter the monetary policy narrative, continued focus on a Labour-led government (and the linkages to looser fiscal policy) and some modest cross-market feedthrough from some of the less dovish elements of ECB President Lagarde’s latest address.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Mar-245.194+0.5
May-245.133-5.6
Jun-245.042-14.7
Aug-244.887-30.2
Sep-244.754-43.5
Nov-244.575-61.4
Dec-244.440-74.9
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.