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BoE Terminal Down To 4-Session Low, ECB Dips Further Below 4%

STIR

BoE hike pricing dropped sharply Wednesday, with ECB terminal also retracing.

  • ECB terminal depo Rate pricing -2.5bp to 3.96% (47bp of further hikes left in the cycle) - The slightly lower-than-expected Italian inflation print helped pull hike pricing lower. Though a 25bp hike in July is still basically seen as assured (and 92% priced), with ECB speakers at Sintra not dispelling that notion, pricing now again suggests some question over whether there will be a 2nd hike in this cycle. Spanish and German inflation data feature Thursday.
  • BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing -8.9bp to 6.16% (116bp of further hikes left in the cycle). There was little seen in the way of UK-specific macro drivers or newsflow to pull BoE hike pricing lower Wednesday, but the move started with the Italian inflation print and carried through the rest of the day. Terminal closes at the lowest since Jun 22, with a little more scepticism over a 50bp hike in August (now 43.5bp priced, vs 46bp prior).

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