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BofA Below Consensus For Core CPI

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • BofA forecast core CPI at 0.14% M/M in tomorrow's July report (Bloomberg median 0.2, average 0.22) after the +0.16% of June, weighed down by core goods prices falling -0.04% M/M, although they do see risks skewed to the upside for both headline and CPI.
  • Within core goods, they see prices falling across used cars, household furnishings and supplies, recreation commodities, new vehicles, and education and communication commodities.
  • Core services should accelerate slightly in July to 0.33% from 0.25% M/M, leaving the three-month rate little changed at 4.0% annualized and well above the run-rate during the last expansion.
  • Within services, rent and OER inflation should be slightly softer than in June reflecting the moderation in asking rent inflation and an improved balance between demand and supply resulting in lower rent increases for existing tenants.
  • However, core services ex rent and OER should accelerate to 0.2% M/M from 0.0% M/M as airfares and lodging away from home should come in relatively stronger than June.
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