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BoI Rate Decision Coming Up This Afternoon (14:00BST)

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The Bank of Israel is unanimously expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.50% this afternoon (14:00BST), with all 18 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg foreseeing no change at this juncture. See a summary of sell-side analyst views below:

  • Goldman Sachs expect the BoI to keep its policy rate unchanged. The BoI unanimously voted for staying on hold at the April MPC, citing heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Since that meeting, inflation has twice surprised to the upside, inflation expectations have increased, and geopolitical uncertainty remains high. Set against this, the ILS has appreciated in the past month. Nevertheless, Goldman do not believe the BoI will cut against the backdrop of rising inflation and continuing geopolitical uncertainty.
  • HSBC had pencilled in a 25bp cut for Q2 and a total of 100bps of easing in 2024 but recently revised their view and now think that the easing cycle faces delay and will only resume in Q4. HSBC note that the outlook remains highly uncertain, and the BOI could opt to remain on hold for longer.
  • BNY Mellon say the BoI is expected to maintain rates at 4.50%, keeping a comfortable real rate buffer as inflation remains relatively robust and current expectations remain elevated. They add that the BoI will be cognizant that unlike most peers, capacity for fiscal restraint is limited while labour markets will remain supply-challenges under current circumstances.
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The Bank of Israel is unanimously expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.50% this afternoon (14:00BST), with all 18 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg foreseeing no change at this juncture. See a summary of sell-side analyst views below:

  • Goldman Sachs expect the BoI to keep its policy rate unchanged. The BoI unanimously voted for staying on hold at the April MPC, citing heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Since that meeting, inflation has twice surprised to the upside, inflation expectations have increased, and geopolitical uncertainty remains high. Set against this, the ILS has appreciated in the past month. Nevertheless, Goldman do not believe the BoI will cut against the backdrop of rising inflation and continuing geopolitical uncertainty.
  • HSBC had pencilled in a 25bp cut for Q2 and a total of 100bps of easing in 2024 but recently revised their view and now think that the easing cycle faces delay and will only resume in Q4. HSBC note that the outlook remains highly uncertain, and the BOI could opt to remain on hold for longer.
  • BNY Mellon say the BoI is expected to maintain rates at 4.50%, keeping a comfortable real rate buffer as inflation remains relatively robust and current expectations remain elevated. They add that the BoI will be cognizant that unlike most peers, capacity for fiscal restraint is limited while labour markets will remain supply-challenges under current circumstances.