January 10, 2025 01:58 GMT
STIR: BOJ Dated OIS Softer Than Pre-Dec MPM
STIR
BOJ-dated OIS pricing is 1-6bps softer across meetings compared to pre-December MPM levels, with January 2025 leading the decline.
- Nevertheless, pricing beyond May 2025 remains 6-13bps firmer versus pre-October MPM levels, with the October 2025 contract showing the strongest gains.
- Market expectations currently indicate: a 28% probability of a 25bp hike in January; a cumulative 82% chance by May; and a full 25bp increase not fully priced in until June 2025.
- A full 25bp hike had been priced by May before the December MPM.
Figure 1: BOJ-Dated OIS – Today Vs. Pre-BOJ MPM (December)
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
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